Exact vs. Estimated True Count Calculation
This section summarizes sims of nine billion Blackjack hands with
various methods of desk estimation. With the parameters that I used, TC calculation
using exact (to the card) deck depth gave a .829% advantage and $17.29
win rate. When estimating the number of decks, generally, the worse the
method of estimation, the lower your advantage, but the higher your win
rate. This is due to overbetting. To show where this overbetting occurs,
I chose a common method of deck estimation (287-312 cards=6 decks, 235-286=5
decks, etc.) and compared it to exact depth. Advantage is .810% and win
rate $17.32 (very slightly higher than using exact remaining cards.) I
created a chart showing the average bet on the Y-axis and deck depth on
the X-axis. In general, average bet increases as deck depth increases
because there are more high TC's. The average bet increases smoothly when
TC calculation is performed with exact remaining cards. However,
the increase is lumpy when the remaining decks are estimated. If you look
at the chart (link is below) you will see how the sloppy estimate shows
lumps of higher betting. The lumps increase in volume as deck depth increases
because of the higher percentage of large TC's. These lumps in the graph
signify the areas of overbetting. The area of the largest lump is the
area of highest risk.
CHART
Conclusions
The better your deck esitmation the smoother and more accurate your
betting, improving exposure to risk but not income.
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