How often should we recalculate True Counts?

If we are using a true-counted strategy, we obviously need to recalculate the true count before each bet. But do we need to recalculate it every time we use it? Four sets of sims are displayed here. The red area indicates the SCOREs assuming we only recalculate the TC at the start of the round and then use that count for all playing decisions as well as betting. Green provides results if we also recalculate before making an insurance bet — after we have seen the other players’ cards. This number would also be used for playing decisions. Blue indicates the gain from recalculating the TC once before playing our hand taking into account the other players’ hands. In these sims, we sit at third base, so all other players have completed their hands. Finally cyan indicates the gain from recalculation when needed after every hit. These sims use 100+ indexes, which increases the effect of always recalculating. The player will need to determine whether the added gain is worth the added effort during the play of hands. This chart indicates that a beginner can start by just recalculating at the start of rounds and then calculate more often when more experienced.

Note: These sims have four players. The number of players will also clearly affect the gains.

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 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger