Targets and Stop Losses

Targets and stop losses are two of the more common voodoo methods used by gamblers. The idea is that if you stop playing Blackjack when you are a specified point ahead or behind, you will reduce losses. Of course they have no effect on Basic Strategy players. However, many if not most Blackjack card counters also think they have no effect on their play. It's important to understand that strictly enforced stops do have an effect on card counters. And this can be a hefty negative effect.

I ran seven simulations: six decks, one deck cutoff, S17, DAS, heads-up, bet spread 1:16, $25 unit, 200 hand sessions max. I set win targets and stop losses of $1,500 and $2,500. By target I mean you immediately end a session when you hit the target and by Stop Loss I mean you immediately end a session when you hit the Stop Loss. SCOREs (win rates) are charted below:

The SCORE decreases are a result of leaving the shoe when the count is high. Unfortunately, the card count is very likely to be high when you reach either a target or stop loss. Obviously, if you play out the shoe or wait for the count to drop back before ending the session, you won't see any decrease. And of course if you hit your stop loss and simply have no ability to continue betting, your SCORE is lower than you think.