If the results were above the upper sigma 1 level, it would potentially indicate that he was in collusion with a dealer who was dumping off to him.

Of course there could be other reasons, but along with completing a cause-and-effect analysis, I would still make sure to get this player on a lie detector quickly.

Signal 5: 6 or more consecutive values steadily increasing or decreasing

Trending up or down does not generally show in the results from typical casino play. Trending is far more likely to occur if you are measuring the skills of a new team member.

For example, if someone is learning to count, then his performance will improve steadily over time and you will see the improvement on the charts. Of course, it would be an abnormal situation for a beginner to be on a team of professional players.

Signal 6: 7 out of 8 consecutive values to one side of center.

Skip any days that land exactly on the X-Avg line. Like signal 5, signal 6 generally indicates that there has been a change in one’s skill set.

For example, if a person has been playing blackjack as a recreation, without bothering to do much practice, he may be able to count a deck down in 25 seconds.

Let’s say he now decides to take more of an interest in producing and gets his average count-per-deck time down to 14 seconds. You will see a shift in the count-per-deck times, which will result in a shift of the average times and be indicated by Signal 6.

Signal 7: 8 points in a row outside plus or minus sigma 1

Usually this signal indicates a severe case of over correction on the part of the player. They may be over-betting and therefore either losing or winning large sums in comparison to what they should be winning or losing.

You should probably take a good hard look a the size of the bets this person is making, especially if the data points are bouncing between extremes.

 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger