What happens when I include a goal and hands?

Let’s try varying both the bankroll and the goal. The time limit is fixed at 10,000 hands in this chart. First we will look at a bankroll of 2,000 units. That is the top of the deep blue area in the upper part of this chart. The x-axis is the goal and it is varied from 2,000 to 3,700 units. At the upper left, we see the point for the goal and bankroll both at 2,000 units. Clearly this is a 100% probability. The deep blue line swoops downward in probability as we increase the goal. At the bottom right we see a near zero probability of reaching a goal of 3,700 units in 10,000 hands with the betting levels in these sims.

The different colors display the probabilities given different bankrolls displayed at the bottom of the chart.

Keep in mind that these are just sample charts. Obviously the charts will change dramatically with different games, strategies, bet spreads, time limits, bankrolls, and goals. The calculators at www.Card-Counting.com can be used to calculate new numbers.

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 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger