What is my Trip Risk of Ruin?

Now let us look at one trip. Trip Ruin is much the same except there are a limited number of hands in one trip. In this chart we are playing the same game, but we will play 5,000 hands, unless we go bankrupt first. The curve is dramatically different here as it is highly unlikely that we will lose an entire bankroll above a certain size in that short a period of time. The risk is now below 1% with a $10,000 bankroll.

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What happens when I include a goal?

Let’s throw in a goal. This is called a double barrier formula as we quit playing if we win or lose specified amounts. We are calculating the risk of bankruptcy before hitting a goal. In this chart a goal of $20,000 is selected. We are looking at the risk involved attempting to end up with $20,000 given bankrolls of $1,000 to $20,000. The risk at $1,000 is nearly the same as in the first chart, which had no goal. But the risk with a $20,000 bankroll is obviously zero and all risks in between are a bit lower. Clearly bankroll is an important aspect of risk. But you can also lower risk by finding better games, reducing the betting level, or using a better strategy.

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 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger