What is the advantage if we know the first card dealt?

Suppose at the beginning of the deal we know the first card that we will be dealt. Clearly this should have a large effect on our bet. This chart looks at the advantage we will enjoy in the round if we know that the card is an ace through ten. The color key can be found at the bottom of the chart. Advantages are provided for each card value by true count using Hi-Lo with six decks. At a true count of zero, we see that drawing an ace as the first card has an enormous 50% advantage. The advantage ranges from 44% to 58% over the counts displayed. A ten is not as exciting, but still gives us a 9% to 21% edge. Most people would consider a nine to be a good card. But it is actually fairly neutral. All other cards are quite poor.

www.qfit.com/book/z800Chart.gif

At www.qfit.com/book/z801Chart.gif, you can find an additional chart that examines the differences between six-deck and single-deck. It is not included here as the differences are minor. An ace increases to 52.6% at TC 0 because of the additional importance of Blackjacks in single-deck games.

 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger