What does it all mean?

Why is this? In this chart, we will look at the frequencies of the last card dealt in a round assuming one and seven players. What we see is that the last card dealt is more likely to be a high card than a low card. This is not surprising as a ten is more likely to cause a bust or final hand, but a deuce is likely to call for another draw. The number of players affects these percentages because the dealer follows different rules than a Basic Strategy player.

Since the most common count is zero, and the most common last card dealt in a round is high, more -1 counts exist than +1 counts at the start of a round. On the other hand, when a round contains small cards, it often contains many small cards as small cards can result in hands with many cards. This is why more counts of +7 exist than -7.

The True Count Theorem tells us that at the end of every round, on average, the true count will be zero. Does this violate the TC Theorem? No. Because although the number of rounds starting with a negative count is greater than the number of rounds starting with a positive count, the average count is still zero. The excess negatives at -1 and -2 balance the excess positives at +3 and higher. The TC Theorem does not say that the distribution of negative and positive counts is the same.

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 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger