Where did the lost winnings go?
We have seen that the frequency of positive true counts that you experience will decrease when a back-counter is present. This chart details that effect. At the negative counts, the Hi-Lo player plays about the same number of hands whether or not a back-counter is present. But when the counter is haunting the table, only 75%–80% as many high true counts are enjoyed. This is due to the back-counter eating cards in positive true count conditions.
There is also a further impact if the Hi-Lo player is using betting camouflage. With cover betting, at positive TCs the drop-off in units bet is more severe than the drop-off in hands played. That is, the average bet will be lower at high TCs. Why is this? Since the back-counter’s interference tends to reduce the length of high TC consecutive hands, and reduces the number of hands dealt per shoe in favorable situations, the Hi-Lo player has fewer opportunities to win enough hands in a row to pump his bet up to the optimum level if constrained by cover betting.
These charts indicate that a card counter should probably leave if someone is back-counting the table. But a basic strategy player who realizes the situation can increase his/her bet whenever a back-counter sits down and will end up improving his advantage.
www.qfit.com/book/z221Chart.gif
· Six decks, 5/6 penetration, S17, DAS, LS, 2 players, Basic Strategy and Hi-Lo, Sweet 16
· Six decks, 5/6 penetration, S17, DAS, LS, 3 players, Basic Strategy and Hi-Lo and Hi-Lo back-counter in at +2 out at -1, re-enter, Sweet 16
· Five billion rounds
© 2009 Norman Wattenberger
