How do player errors affect us?

This is an attempt to show examples of the cost of player errors when counting cards. Note that these costs are highly dependent on many variables. Three sets of columns are provided using data from six-deck, Strip games. The height of the columns represents SCORE.

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The first set of columns displays the effects of betting errors for a non-cover card counter spreading 1 to 12. The errors are betting incorrectly by one count — for example, betting the amount for true count +2 when the count is only +1. The red column gives the SCORE with no errors. Succeeding columns toward the front increase the error rate by 1%, or one error per hour playing 100 rounds per hour. The effect of errors is not enormous because we are still getting the money out when needed — just not the optimal bet.

Column set 2 displays the effect of playing errors in the same manner. The errors are serious, but not idiotic. Insure is reversed, surrender is reversed, split or double is changed to hit, hit and stand are reversed. But a hard 18 up is never hit, an eleven is never not hit, and a double or split is never taken when it shouldn't be.

 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger