Effect of Spreads

As pointed out earlier, one of the important advantages of back-counting is that we can reduce the bet spread, making us look less like a counter and allowing us to play at higher-limit tables. Conversely, one of the disadvantages is that, unlike playing all hands,  a higher bet spread does not significantly improve results. This is because most of the hands are played at an advantage. Let us look at a few different bet spreads.

In this chart, we enter at +2, and exit below zero with bet spreads of 1-1 (flat-betting) through 1-6. The 1-4 column is the same as the middle two bars in the previous chart.

What we see is that we quickly reach a point of diminishing returns. Not only can we use a smaller bet spread, but increasing the bet spread barely helps. In contrast, increasing the bet spread when we play all hands has a dramatic effect on win rates as can be seen on page 110.

We can actually turn a profit flat-betting. But the profit is small and there is no reason not to use a small bet spread.

Note that for Hi-Lo, you enter and exit at +1 and below zero.

Also note that the unit size is different in each example to maintain a consistent risk.

www.qfit.com/book/z4133Chart.gif

 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger