How does the count affect win/lose/push rates?

There is a common misconception that you win many more hands at higher counts. Unfortunately this is not true. These charts display the percentage of hands won, lost, and pushed at each count. The win percentage, in green, does slightly increase. However, it only increases from 41.6% of hands at a true count of -18, to 42.7% at TC zero to about 44% at TC +18. The percentage of hands lost does decrease somewhat at the higher card counts. Most of this is offset by an increase in pushes. Much of the increase in pushes is due to an increase in player and dealer twenties due to the excess tens. The second chart has the same data, but is stacked by percent. Note: Adding surrender would substantially increase losses.

www.qfit.com/book/z50Chart.gif z53Chart.gif

 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger