How valuable is each True Count?

Here we will look at the advantage at each count. That is the percentage gain you can expect on average from the initial Blackjack bet. Data for six decks, two decks, and single-deck with two or four players are displayed. It can be seen that the number of decks does not have a large effect on the curve. If the rules were not adjusted by the casinos to provide about the same advantage for single-deck and shoes, the curves would separate, but would still have about the same shape.

The upward trend appears fairly linear, but we will see that it is not. The angle of the curve is greater in the positive counts than in the negative counts. That is, the lines gently accelerate upwards. The advantages here are positive at counts of +1 and above and negative otherwise. But the +14 count is substantially more positive than the -14 count is negative.

The lines tend to become jagged at the extremes because there are very few hands at these counts and the standard deviation is higher.

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 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger