Computers are dispassionate, better suiting them to many pattern-recognition tasks. They, further, do not suffer from the human trait of blaming others for their failures. That is, if I won, I was clever, if I lost, someone cheated me. You will find people in chat forums who are prime examples of this sort of logic. Otherwise perfectly sane people, in remarkable numbers, can actually believe that the guy at third base is at fault for taking the dealer’s bust card. I once saw someone with a firm understanding of statistics, after running a test that did not match his desires, state that a smaller sample size is better than a large sample size.

The point that I am trying to make is that you must have faith in probability theory. If you want to be a successful BJ player, you cannot be a gambler. You must use no gambling “instincts.” Other than camouflage techniques, you really shouldn’t think at all. You should calculate only according to the strategy that you are using. There are often questions relating to why Blackjack Basic Strategy calls for certain actions (e.g., why stand on 77 vs. Ten in single-deck). The question doesn’t really matter since the answer is always the same — because the calculations say so. 

The reason that I refuse to put dealer-break probabilities in my software is that you have no business thinking about this when you’re playing. It is merely a distraction. If the tables say do X, you shouldn’t muddle your mind with logic and anecdotal observations; just do X.

People have been trying to come up with a method of beating the odds in random, independent-trials games since the first dice carved from the anklebones of an antelope were thrown against a cave wall.

If someone believes that he has thought of a new twist in playing the trivial game of Craps or any other independent trials game that no one else has tried in the last few thousand years, then he/she should take a better look at the casino. Las Vegas has been the fastest growing city in the U.S. for decades. That is useful pattern recognition.  

 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger