Results

 There exist only tiny differences between the flat bettor, flat bettor with quit point, and the progression system. The progression strategy is a tiny bit worse than flat betting as predicted by Theory of Blackjack. Of course, the counter fares far better. The counter’s profit is small because playing indexes were not used. In other words, progression betting and stop losses had almost no effect on results and losses. But card counting wins.

One Billion Hands

It is often asked, what does running one billion hands matter when I won't play that many in my entire life? The point is to increase the accuracy of the estimate of what will happen in the short-term. The above numbers show that a flat bettor making 1,000 ten-dollar bets will, on average, lose 60 cents less than a progression bettor risking the same dollars. Progression books often look at a very small number of hands, say 10,000. Well, for any 10,000 hands it is easy to come up with a system that will win. But it will win only for those particular 10,000 hands. That does not mean it will win for the next 10,000 hands.

Progression books are always based on empirical evidence. The author won, so the system must work. Many of these books have also claimed some sort of evidence based on what they or others have seen. If I won, I must have done something right. Empirical evidence means evidence gleaned from experience only. You will often see numerous references that go something like “I won $5,123 with this system,” signed Mike G. from Oklahoma. Even if these are real people, it is not relevant if someone, somewhere once made money with the system. What matters is what happens on average.

 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger